The new subsidy policy changes the new energy vehicle market pattern

On July 5, Beijing auto new energy corp. 's first private electricity-changing model showed how to change electricity quickly in the model room of an electrical changing station.

From January to June, the production and sales of new-energy vehicles increased by 94.9% and 111.5% respectively, much better than in previous years. With the implementation of the new subsidy policy, the market pattern of pure electric vehicles has changed a lot, and the long-endurance models that meet the demands of consumers have become the choice of more consumers. Experts expect that the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles will exceed one million units. In the next few years, with the accelerated release of production capacity and continuous decline of subsidies, the new energy automobile industry will face a market test --

The notice on adjusting and improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles will be implemented from June 12. So far, more than a month after the release of the notice, the impact of the new policy on the market can be seen in the recently released June sales ranking of pure electric vehicles.

With the implementation of the new subsidy policy, the market pattern of pure electric vehicles has changed a lot. In the first five months of this year, baic new energy has been ranked first in the domestic pure electric passenger vehicle market. By June, however, baic had only one small SUV in the top 10, and last year's champion, the EC, sold just three units in June.

Meanwhile, saic's roewe Ei5 topped the list of all-electric vehicles sold in June. It can be seen from this that the long-endurance model that more meets the demands of consumers has gradually become the choice of more consumers.

Annual production and sales are expected to exceed one million

Recently, the automobile production and sales data for the first half of the year released by the China association of automobile manufacturers showed that from January to June, the automobile production and sales volume reached 14.058 million units and 14.066 million units, respectively. In June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 86,000 units and 84,000 units, respectively. From January to June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 413,000 units and 412,000 units, respectively. The performance in the first half of the year was much better than in previous years.

In this regard, zhou yi, an assistant researcher of the ministry of industry at the development research center of the state council, analyzed that in June, the output and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 31.7% and 42.9% respectively compared with the same period last year, up by -11.7% and 9.9 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year, which further narrowed the gap between production and sales. From January to June, the production and sales of new-energy vehicles increased by 94.9% and 111.5% year on year respectively, up by 11.7 percentage points and 97.1 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year, showing an obvious trend of rapid development. On a month-on-month basis, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in June decreased by 10,000 units and 18,000 units respectively from may, which was greatly affected by the policy. Although some car companies maintain the same price, but overall lower subsidies have a greater impact on low-end electric vehicles.

From a structural point of view, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles in June were 64,000 and 62,000 units respectively, 32,000 and 40,000 units less than in May, zhou said. The production and sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles reached 22,000 units, an increase of 3,000 and 2,000 units respectively from may. This is partly because of a more pronounced decline in subsidies for pure electric vehicles, which is a crowding out effect, and partly because of increased local support for plug-in hybrid vehicles.

As for the sales of new energy vehicles in the first half of the year, the caam said that the first half of the year is usually a "low season" in the auto market according to the previous years. In addition, the market is in the blank period of policy shift, it is expected that the real strength of the new energy vehicle market node will appear in the second half of the year.

Xu haidong, assistant secretary general of China association of automobile manufacturers, said that the production and sales situation of new energy vehicles in the first half of this year is much better than the same period in the previous year, and it is expected that the second half of the year will still maintain a good development trend, maintaining the previous annual production and sales scale of more than 1 million vehicles.

Zhou yi said that in recent years, the new energy vehicle industry has a good momentum of development. In terms of quantity, China's new energy vehicle production reached 794,000 units last year, with a year-on-year growth of 53.8%. The total supporting capacity of new energy vehicle power battery reached about 37.06 billion watt-hours, a year-on-year growth of nearly one-third. In terms of scale and increment, it is in the forefront of the world. In the first half of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly compared with last year. "If this trend continues, annual production and sales are expected to exceed 1.4m vehicles," he said.

The scale of future production capacity exceeds the plan by ten times

At present, anxiety about battery technology, charging inconvenience, price and range is still the main factor restricting consumers' choice of new energy vehicles.

Shi jianhua, deputy secretary general of China association of automobile manufacturers, believes that in the next three to five years, the competition in the new energy automobile industry will be extremely fierce. So far, 16 new enterprises have obtained the production qualification of new energy vehicles. In 2017, a total of 91 new vehicle projects were launched nationwide, and 21 provinces announced new energy vehicle projects, with an investment scale of 528.3 billion yuan. Various auto companies have announced that the capacity of new energy vehicles will exceed 20 million by 2020, 10 times the target set by the national plan.

In addition, the development of new energy vehicle industry is driven by predictable technical factors, and the influence of policy is also critical.

Although some companies have kept their terminal prices unchanged since the new subsidy standard was introduced on June 12, their ability to fill the subsidy gap is unknown as the subsidy is gradually reduced over the next two years until it is completely withdrawn, zhou said. Since July 1, import duties on automobiles and parts have been reduced, leading to a significant increase in automobile imports. It is uncertain whether this will have an impact on domestic new-energy vehicle sales. At the same time, the current tightening of environmental protection policies will affect the development of the new energy vehicle industry in the future, whether the environmental tolerance of traditional fuel vehicles can be maintained or not, and whether the policies of local traffic license plates will be more inclined to new energy vehicles.

We will actively encourage the development of new technologies and new models

According to shi jianhua, the current trend of the global automobile industry is reflected in the profound transformation of product form and production mode, the accelerated emergence of emerging demands and business models, and the profound adjustment of industrial pattern and ecological system. China's auto market has entered a new normal of steady growth at a low speed and intensified competition. As a major country in global auto production and sales, China's auto industry is in a critical period of transformation and upgrading, from big to strong. In the early stage of development of new energy automobile industry, the industry can be boosted to achieve rapid growth through subsidies, license plates, government procurement and other administrative means. But when the industry develops to a certain stage, it is neither economical nor realistic to use administrative means again.

"The subsidy policy will inevitably continue to decline and become more precise." Zhou said the auto industry must be prepared for the subsidy rollback, and strive to improve technology and reduce costs in order to cope with the gradual withdrawal of subsidies. This can be seen from the notice on adjusting and improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles just implemented. With the overall reduction of subsidies, more emphasis is placed on subsidies for high mileage and energy density, which are more precise, standardized and scientific.

Experts suggest that the new energy vehicle industry involves a wide range of areas, in policy support and promote industrial development, need to have a top-level design. It is necessary to reform and promote some unreasonable relations between the central government and local governments and between local governments in the process of promoting the new-energy automobile industry. Local governments should have the incentive to subsidize back-end infrastructure and facilitate new-energy automobile consumers. At the same time, also to coordinate the relationship between the deal with the competent department of industry, "hair change sector investment access, the labor letter department of industry admittance, the transportation department license restrictions and management measures, the environmental protection department of carbon management, tax and subsidy policy of finance and tax departments need to mix, to jointly promote industry development." Zhou Yi said.

"In the final analysis, technological innovation is the fundamental force supporting the development and growth of the new energy vehicle industry." Zhou suggested that the government and society should pay more attention to the research and development of technology, market support and consumption habits behind the sales volume, and pay special attention to the research and development of technology, and increase the support for battery and electric control technology in the national key research and development plan, so as to fully stimulate the enthusiasm, initiative and creativity of enterprises in research and development. "We need to be tolerant of research and development failures, of technology research and development that doesn't work, of new forces building cars, and of the new model of the car economy. As long as the intention is to promote technological progress and raise efficiency, it is worth encouraging. We should actively encourage the development of new technologies and new models, foster new drivers of growth and foster new industries." Zhou Yi said.